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 Betreff des Beitrags: report says top teams
BeitragVerfasst: 26 Feb 2019, 08:05 
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Each round of the playoffs, I like to forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. It offers no assurances and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. Last year, this method forecasted the first round at a 7-1 clip; this year it was 5-3, with losses on Columbus, Colorado and San Jose. In the first two cases, their strong goaltending led to a calculated advantage, but it can be difficult for goaltending superiority to take effect over much larger samples, let alone seven games. As for the Sharks, they were in a virtual toss-up situation with the Kings, favoured by the smallest of margins. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, Boston had 32.1 shots on goal per game and Montreal has allowed 28.6 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 30.35 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for Round Two: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 32.1 29.3 Tuukka Rask 0.933 15.93 Montreal 30.9 28.6 Carey Price 0.925 14.12 Verdict: The Bruins are favoured, with a slightly better shot differential and slightly better goaltending, and its simple enough that way. But when the Habs and Bruins meet in the playoffs, strange things can happen. Higher-seeded Canadiens teams have been bounced by lower-seeded Bruins teams and vice versa. Between these two incarnations of the Canadiens and Bruins is a wonderful contrast in styles as the Bruins are more physically-imposing while the Canadiens are a smaller, skilled group. While some teams (including the Red Wings in Round One) avoid getting into confrontations with the Bruins, the Canadiens havent always taken that approach, and it not only makes for entertaining hockey, it adds some variability to the process. Furthermore, if the Canadiens can keep Tuukka Rask off his game (his .908 save percentage vs. Montreal is his lowest vs. teams that hes faced at least 10 times in his career), then that could help close the calculated gap between the teams. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 30.4 29.1 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.915 16.66 N.Y. Rangers 33.1 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.920 18.50 Verdict: The Penguins were forecasted to lose -- or, more accurately, score fewer goals -- against Columbus, but here they are in the second round, looking at a similar forecast, against a team with a better shot differential and better goaltending. The Penguins are healthier than theyve been for most of the season, which helps, and they have elite forwards that can shake results. The Rangers could control play and it wouldnt take a Henrik Lundqvist collapse to see the Penguins get through. All it might take is Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin going off for a few games. Heck, they managed to get past Columbus with contributions from a lot more than Crosby and Malkin. Defencemen Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen led the Penguins with eight points, Brandon Sutter added five and Beau Bennett chipped in four. In my playoff picks, I had the Penguins going past the Rangers and its on the expectation that, at some point, the Penguins elite players will bury more of their chances, though that also requires some faith in Marc-Andre Fleury and that hasnt been a safe feeling for the Penguins in the playoffs for quite some time. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Frederik Andersen 0.918 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 17.33 Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Jonas Hiller 0.912 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 18.60 Verdict: I presume that the Ducks are going back to rookie Frederik Andersen, even after he was pulled twice against Dallas in the first round (but I included calculations for Hiller anyway). This is another really close series in which the Kings get slightly favoured because they have superior shot differential. The Ducks have exceeded more advanced possession metrics all year, in part because they have been insanely fortunate when it comes to shooting in close games. Oh, and here too. That isnt the kind of thing that seems possible to repeat over time but, it worked enough to take down Dallas in the first round, so it wouldnt come as a shock if they can do it against Los Angeles. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 18.15 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Darcy Kuemper 0.914 15.59 Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 20.05 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.905 15.59 Verdict: Again, a presumption that the Wild will have Darcy Kuemper to start the series, despite leaving Game Seven against Colorado with an injury. If the Wild are really rolling with Ilya Bryzgalov, then the forecast will be unfavourable, just as it was in the first round, but if Kuemper is in, he offers a slightly better chance. No matter who is in net for the Wild, though, they will have their hands full, because they are facing a team that generates a whole lot more shots than their opponents. So long as Corey Crawford is decent, and there arent any major injuries, then the Blackhawks will warrant their status as prohibitive favourites. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Air Max 95 Baratas . The 25-year-old Brazilian player has only made four Premier League appearances for United this season and underwent a medical test in Italy on Friday. Air Max 95 Rebajas . Tensions rose in the first period when Penguins defenceman Brooks Orpik hit Bruins forward Loui Eriksson with what appeared to be a clean hit. http://www.airmax95baratas.es/ . Called on from the college ranks to replace Andy Reid, Kelly implemented a whole new atmosphere in the City of Brotherly Love and now has the Eagles in the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Venta De Air Max 95 . McCutchen was cut before the series opener against Seattle on Monday night, when Lewis was set for his first start for Texas since July 18, 2012. Texas selected Lewis contract from Triple-A Round Rock. Air Max 95 Outlet España .Stanton suffered fractures in his face and other injuries when he was hit by a pitch Sept. 11. The Marlins are confident hell fully recover and be ready for spring training, and they hope to reach a long-term agreement with him.GENEVA -- Risk-taking and counterattacks are the new fashion in football, according to a FIFA study of World Cup teams tactics. "The trend is for teams to play positively and do everything to win a game rather than merely not lose," FIFAs panel of coaching experts working in Brazil reported Friday. The best teams were rewarded for being "not afraid of losing their shape for brief moments," the 284-page document noted. "Outstanding fast transitions and counterattacking tactics," were praised as the most effective strategy at a World Cup which equaled the tournament record for most goals and was widely praised as the best in a generation. It was a different story four years ago. Then, the football was so poor in South Africa that FIFA President Sepp Blatter asked a task force to suggest ways of making football more entertaining. Though that panel achieved little, in Brazil the teams, coaches and players rose to their challenge. "The tempo of the game was impressive -- Brazil 2014 was one of, if not the fastest World Cups ever played," the FIFA technical report said. Other successful trends in Brazil included playing with at least two strikers, three central defenders and only one defensive midfielder. Controversial incidents -- including Uruguay forward Luis Suarez biting an opponent, and players continuing despite apparent head injuries -- are not mentioned in the document. Teams are also rarely criticized, though Brazil is not spared after being outplayed by eventual winner Germany and the Netherlands. "An incomprehensibly poor performance against Germany," the report said of the host nations semifinal humbling, adding that 7-1 was "a fair reflection of the strengths of the two teams." FIFAs coaches noted Brazils "attacking game not quite clicking into gear and some co-ordination problems obvious in defence." Tactically, the FIFA report says top teams no longer use two holding midfielders, which was effective in South Africa. A lone striker is also out of fashion. "Most teams played with two strikers (if not three), and the few teams that played with one lone attacker left the competition early," the report said. Goalkeepers like Germanys Manuel Neuer now functionn as an extra outfield player, and specialized coaching should reflect that, the report said.dddddddddddd The report suggests playing with three central defenders is "on the rise again" thanks to the third-place Netherlands, surprise quarterfinalist Costa Rica, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay. Four years after Spain rode its tiki-taka passing to win the World Cup, the report notes effective use of the ball is now more important than simply having it. In Brazil, 21 of 64 matches were won by the counterattacking team having less possession. "Possession play must be efficient and not sterile," the report noted, adding that 34 of 171 goals in Brazil came from "quick transition play." "Counter-attacking tactics were once a tool in a teams armoury, but now some teams base their entire play around such tactics," the report said. More goals than expected came from corner kicks and "remarkable" high-quality crosses, and early leads were often overturned. "Teams that scored the first goal were at times too confident and too sure of themselves," the report said. Defensive tactics included aggressive pressing to get the ball in the first 15 minutes, and holding a back line at least 40 metres from goal. "Teams defended in a compact block in a high line and overloaded the area where the ball was," the report said. Costa Rica and Algeria are praised for making progress, and so was the CONCACAF region which also had Mexico and the United States reach the second round "Good development work has seen the gap between (CONCACAF) teams narrow, which automatically means that there is healthy competition and an improved standard of football," the report states. "Europe can be more than happy with their performance at Brazil 2014," the report said, after winning for the first time in the Americas. The four winless Asian confederation teams "lacked creativity, ideas, penetration and players who could turn a match in their favour." FIFAs experts also hope the World Cup will encourage a generation of unselfish players putting their team first. "Individual skill can only be effective if it is fully in sync with the efforts and philosophy of the team." ' ' '
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